CLARITY Act Passing Odds Fall as Senators Push Crypto Bill Markup for May End

The odds of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 drop sharply as banks lobby against stablecoin yields and rewards. Senate crypto bill markup could get delayed until the end of May as Senators remain split on the timeline.

Investment bank TD Cowen has flagged five additional challenges facing the CLARITY Act passage beyond stablecoin yields. The crypto bill markup is crucial for further Bitcoin and broader crypto market recovery.

Senators Signal Further Delay in Crypto Bill Markup Until May

During an event in Washington, D.C. on April 22, Senator Bernie Moreno was asked about the timeline for the crypto market structure bill. Moreno said, “I think we’re going to get it done by the end of May.”

The Ohio Republican warned last month that if the CLARITY Act isn’t passed by May, the crypto bill could be off the table for the foreseeable future.

Regarding banks’ objections to stablecoin yields compromise, Moreno said “There’s a lot of noise in the system and it’s completely fake,” while urging banks to “get going with innovation.”

As CoinGape reported earlier, Senator Thom Tillis told Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott to delay the crypto bill markup to May. He claims negotiators need more time to finalize a compromise between banks and the crypto industry on stablecoin yields.

In contrast, pro-crypto Senators such as Cynthia Lummis and the Digital Chamber push for Senate markup of the CLARITY Act as soon as possible.

Meanwhile, American Bankers Association has requested 60 more days to comment on rules tied to the GENIUS Act stablecoin bill. This indicates a potential delay in its implementation as the banking group continues to lobby against stablecoin yields.

CLARITY Act Passing Odds Dropping Sharply

Polymarket took to X to claim that CLARITY Act is no longer projected to be signed into law this year. It showed the odds of passing have plunged to 38%, a 23% drop amid Senators’ push to delay crypto bill markup to May.

JUST IN: The “Clarity Act” is no longer projected to be signed into law this year. pic.twitter.com/YktSLS7DNh

— Polymarket Money (@PolymarketMoney) April 22, 2026

Meanwhile, Kalshi data also indicated a slump in odds for the crypto market structure bill becoming law, with a 14% chance of passing before July and a 39% odds of passing before August.

The odds of the CLARITY Act getting signed by President Donald Trump into law before 2027 have slightly increased to 58% today, from 53% earlier this week.

Notably, TD Cowen has shared five additional challenges to CLARITY Act passage beyond the stablecoin yields. These include a lack of commissioners at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, prediction markets regulation, and ongoing scrutiny faced by the Trump family-linked World Liberty Financial.

Moreover, Iran accepting crypto payments as toll for ships to pass the Strait of Hormuz could increase focus on anti-money laundering and Bank Secrecy Act provisions in the crypto bill. TD Cowen also flagged the Credit Card Competition Act as another obstacle.

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