Patience and discipline key as market navigates structural shifts: Samir Arora

India’s equity market is expected to remain on a stable trajectory through the rest of the year, even as global investors rotate across regions and themes. Market veteran Samir Arora, Founder, Helios Capital struck a note of cautious optimism, highlighting India’s relative resilience while urging investors to stay disciplined amid uncertainty in certain sectors.

On the outlook for the year, Arora in an interview to ET Now said, “India will do well. Asian markets like Korea and Taiwan have run up sharply on aggressive earnings expectations in memory chip companies, which look more commodity-driven than AI-driven. India, meanwhile, has held up despite selling, FII numbers are not negative, the index is stable, and the currency is within range. With earnings growth expectations around 15%, the outlook looks reasonable for investors.”

Turning to the IT sector, where foreign investors have recently trimmed exposure, he noted, “We have been negative for a year as disruption is visible. The sector has fallen sharply and guidance remains around 3–5% growth with no clarity on improvement. There is no urgency to step in until visibility improves, and valuations may still need to adjust below historical averages.”

On what could restore conviction, Arora added, “Companies need to guide closer to 10% growth and provide clarity on AI gains versus legacy losses. Being large or having underperformed does not guarantee a comeback—many once-dominant companies fade from investor focus over time.”

Discussing portfolio strategy, he explained, “We prefer avoiding areas with high uncertainty. History shows it is easier to identify losers than winners in technological shifts. Financials, parts of consumption, hospitals, and hotels look relatively steady, while investors should stay cautious where disruption risk is high.”

On the broader AI theme, Arora said, “It is very hard to identify winners early. Even globally, outcomes are uncertain despite heavy investments. Rather than chasing announcements like data centres, it is better to avoid obvious risks and wait for clearer opportunities.”
While India’s macro and earnings backdrop remains supportive, investors may be better served by focusing on areas with clearer visibility and maintaining patience in sectors undergoing structural change.