No Nifty forecast, but Gurmeet Chadha lists his 5 big predictions for next Diwali

Decoding Nifty’s moves is never easy, and no one can truly predict where India’s heartbeat index will stand by next Diwali. However, Gurmeet Chadha, Managing Partner and CIO at Complete Circle Consultants, outlines five possibilities for the next Samvat. He sees India’s repo rate at 5%, down by 50 bps and a US-India trade deal that could bring down tariffs to 15%.
Chadha also expects the trends for systematic investment plans (SIPs) to grow to Rs 38,000-Rs 40,000 a month. In September, SIP inflows stood at a record Rs 29,361 crore according to AMFI data.

Corporate earnings, which remain the biggest determinant for Nifty’s performance, will likely grow at 13%-15%, he said, and noted that a shift of money from AI and US tech to real assets may happen.

Also Read: Gurmeet Chadha slams NSE, BSE for remaining open on Diwali, questions “greed”

“No one knows where Nifty will b next Diwali , but 5 things can happen (high probability) -repo rate 5% (50 bps more rate cut) -India US trade deal with tariffs at 15% -SIP book 38k-40000 cr -corporate earnings will grow at 13-15% -shift of money from AI & US tech to real assets,” Chadha said in a tweet.

Corporate earnings have been lackluster witnessing brokerage downgrades for five consecutive quarters though Q1 delivered the weakest downgrade cycle in a year, infusing hope that we are nearing the end of downgrades.Nifty traversed 6.4% or 1,564 points from last Diwali at 24,304.35 to this Diwali at 25,868.60. (Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)