In midst of all this, the fate of 20 odd living Israeli hostages in Hamas captivity continues to ignite public debate in Israel and the world. With each passing day, the health and status of the living hostages is likely to deteriorate while Hamas continues to bolster its cadres through a steady stream of recruitment, posing new challenges to the IDF. A number of factors, each closely interlinked, are thus hampering efforts to end this war. A closer examination of each may offer a realistic assessment towards a much-awaited ceasefire.
The Hamas
When the war broke out on 7th October 2023, Hamas was estimated to have around 25,000 to 30,000 combat cadres. Over the past 20 months, most estimates suggest that almost 12,000 to 15,000 Hamas operatives have been eliminated so far although the IDF estimates are higher at almost 23,000. However, the bigger achievement has been how severely Hamas’s combat capabilities have been degraded by elimination of its top leadership as well as destruction of its weapon caches, rocket launchers and its tunnel network. Plus, the deployment of IDF along the Rafah border and the Netzarin Corridor has meant that Hamas is neither able to replenish its arsenal nor is it permitted free movement across the Gaza Strip.
However, there are inputs of steady recruitment within Hamas ranks and despite the fact that the new recruits may not be well trained, they do definitely add to the numbers and nuisance value. Plus, there are no reports to suggest that Hamas has lost its governance capability completely with Gaza. In fact, with no other agency or group including the Palestine authority (PA), seems to be in a position to provide a viable alternative to Hamas in Gaza. There were suggestions earlier that the Arab countries may be asked to deploy a coalition force in Gaza and ensure peace and governance but it is quite clear that none of these countries want to get involved in the mess themselves. This, coupled by the fact that Hamas is regularly ambushing IDF soldiers is becoming a major irritant for Israel. Two things look clear here. Hamas retains enough fighting capability to frustrate the IDF and keep it engaged in Gaza. Secondly, there is no likelihood of finding a viable alternative to Hamas with regards to governance in Gaza, in the short term.
Ceasefire Efforts
Apart from a brief week-long truce in November 2023, the only ceasefire in the Gaza war lasted from 19th January to 18th March this year. This ceasefire was agreed upon (or imposed on Israel), days before Donald Trump was to assume office as the 47th President of the US, fulfilling a key election promise. The ceasefire, however, could not culminate in the end of war as Israel unilaterally broke it on 18th March launching airstrikes which killed more than 400 people in Gaza in one night. And with ground forces moving into Gaza on 20th March, slim hopes of ceasefire faded soon.
The Iran-Israel conflict in June put the Gaza war on a backburner but there was hope of a ceasefire once the conflict ended. In fact, the Trump Administration, with Egypt and Qatar as key interlocutors, did put in a ceasefire proposal in the first week of July which entailed an initial ceasefire of 60 days. The plan was to release 10 living hostages held by Hamas and 18 bodies of dead hostages in a staggered manner, in exchange for an unspecified number of Palestinians lodged in Israeli prisons. Plus, the humanitarian aid though the UN and the ICRC would resume distributing aid in Gaza. The plan also included a phased withdrawal of the IDF from parts of Gaza.
While initial reports suggested that Israel has agreed to the contours of the ceasefire, PM Netanyahu, in his statements later, denied it saying that he will not end the war until all captives are released and Hamas is “destroyed”. Hamas, on the other hand, wanted the IDF to withdraw to the positions it held before it violated the ceasefire in March this year. The positions of Israel and Hamas on the ceasefire are thus acutely divergent. While Hamas is looking at a complete end to the war accompanied with full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, Israel is looking for release of its hostages with no guarantees on ending the war till the Hamas is totally removed from Gaza. With this being the case, an early ceasefire in Gaza looks unlikely.
IDF Casualties and Hostages
As the IDF continues its operations in Gaza, it is confronted with a grim reality in the past few weeks; that of increasing incidents of IDF troops being ambushed and killed in Gaza by Hamas. In a recent incident, three IDF soldiers were killed and an officer was wounded when their armoured tank was hit by a blast in the northern Gaza Strip on 14 July. From available data officially released by the IDF, it has lost 891 soldiers (up-to 15 July 2025) in the Gaza war. Of these, 19 have lost their lives since 24th June (the day of ceasefire between Israel and Iran) and 42 have lost lives since the ceasefire was revoked by Israel on 18th March. With Hamas resorting to guerilla tactics, merging with the civilian population and using the tunnels deceptively, the likelihood of IDF suffering more casualties in the coming days and weeks cannot be ruled out.
On the other hand, the fate of living hostages is becoming grim with each passing day. The accounts narrated by hostages who have been released earlier are not promising as the hostages are being kept in dire conditions and have also been used as human shields by Hamas in the past. Against this backdrop, the rising number of IDF casualties poses difficult questions in Israel. Is the life of an IDF soldier not as precious as a living hostage? What is the cost that Israel is ready to pay to get back the remaining living hostages? Here, one has to also see that many of the soldiers in the IDF who have been killed in combat are reservists who were leading normal civilian lives and had been called up to serve in the war. There are also huge protests in Israel from pro-hostage groups which are calling for early release of hostages and are condemning PM Netanyahu for stalling the negotiations for his own political compulsions.
Conclusion
The war in Gaza was launched as a result of the deadliest Hamas terror attack into Israel on 7th October 2023. Israel had vowed to end the menace once and for all, launching an unprecedented military operation in Gaza. It had hoped that, with overwhelming military superiority, it would defeat Hamas and achieve its military objectives soon. However, Hamas is still fighting at the end of 21 months and the war has turned into a battle of attrition, something that suits the Hamas in its warfare tactics.
With hostages not yet back home and casualties in IDF rising steadily, Israel is caught in a critical dilemma on how to minimise its losses and achieve its war objectives. Ceasefire attempts are not succeeding due to acutely divergent positions while increasing civilian deaths in Gaza due to IDF operations is adding international pressure on Israel.
In midst of all this, there is no clear vision of a ‘day after’ scenario except that Hamas should be totally removed from Gaza and an alternate authority takes over governance of Gaza. Going by the current situation on ground in Gaza, this looks unlikely soon. Israel may therefore have to arrive at critical decision points soon, lest the war lingers on with no clear end in sight and the count of IDF body bags returning to Israel increases while the number of living hostages starts dwindling.
The author is senior research consultant, Chintan Research Foundation
