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Home prices rise in some cities, drop in others: How Canada’s property market is shifting after the trade war


People across Canada who are planning to purchase a home can enter the market as uncertainty around the trade war has started to ease, with prices dropping in certain areas. Some cities, however, remain robust with strong prices, according to an RBC economist.

According to the statistics of the local real estate board, there was a modest increase in the number of transactions between May and June 2025 in several major markets, including Vancouver, Edmonton, Regina, Saskatoon, Toronto, and Halifax. The gains recorded, however, constitute a fraction of pullbacks earlier this year.

“When you look at various metrics, you know buyers now have much more of a stronger hand when negotiating prices,” CTV News quoted Robert Hogue, assistant chief economist for RBC, as saying.
The MLS Home Price Index (HPI) dropped in Toronto, Vancouver, southern Ontario, and Lower Mainland markets, CTV News reported. Inventory in these markets has risen to historically high levels, and buyers are facing stretched affordability conditions.

“Markets in southern Ontario, as well as B.C., are soft; however, it looks like, over the last couple of months, the slide in activity appears to be now stabilizing, so things don’t look like they’re getting any softer from an activity perspective,” Hogue said.


“But prices continue to fall in those markets. That’s likely because of a stretch of affordability that’s holding back a lot of buyers who can’t get up prices in the current context, and the fact that those markets are heavily in favour of buyers. At this point, there’s a lot of competition between sellers and less between buyers, so those markets are seeing price declines,” he added.Meanwhile, in several other cities, the value of property continues to be on the higher side. These markets include the Prairies, Quebec, and the Atlantic region, supported by still tight (and, in some cases, very tight) supply-demand conditions. “In other parts of the country, the situation is different,” said Hogue.“We’ve seen some correction during the spring in the face of the trade war; that affected confidence across the board. But the level of activity, in most cases—I’m thinking in particular in the prairies, either in Saskatchewan or in Alberta—to a fair extent, not everywhere, but to a fair extent, the level of activity is still pretty robust. When you compare it to pre-pandemic levels, it’s sort of the same situation in markets like Montreal, for example. Now we’ve seen a bit of a slowdown lately, but nonetheless, the level is still, I would argue, pretty comparable relative to the pre-pandemic level,” he added.

Buyers in Toronto have bargaining power

In Toronto, buyers have plenty of options, a situation not seen in the city in decades, as the number of homes for sale continues to surge. The trend favours buyers and gives them more time to make decisions and negotiate.

Toronto’s MLS HPI in June 2025 was down 5.5 per cent (or more than $58,000) year over year and lower by 0.9 per cent from May, according to CTV News.

Condo apartments saw the largest drop, falling eight per cent because of an abundant supply, but every housing type experienced some loss in value.

Sellers are holding back in Montreal

According to RBC, Montreal’s recovery has stalled this year because of the trade war. The bank estimates that resales dropped for the third consecutive month between May and June, falling by about two per cent. Still, resales are staying at levels that would have been considered strong before the pandemic.

Prices see downtrend in Vancouver

As far as Vancouver is concerned, the slide in resales in Vancouver is stabilizing, though prices remain firmly on a downward track. According to CTV News, Vancouver’s MLS HPI declined 2.8 per cent from a year ago (2024), marking the fourth straight month of annual declines.

The supply and demand situation in the city is favouring the buyers, giving them control amid rising inventories. Active listings reached a 13-year high in June, yet home resales rose for the first time this year, up more than two per cent in May.



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