Hero MotoCorp Q1 Preview: Revenue, Profit seen declining amid volume weakness and EV drag

Hero MotoCorp is likely to report a muted set of numbers for the quarter ended June 2025, with both revenue and profit expected to decline year-on-year, weighed down by weak volumes, supply constraints, and rising pressure from increased electric vehicle (EV) contribution.

An average of estimates from five brokerages suggests a 6% year-on-year fall in revenue, while net profit is seen declining by about 5% compared to the same period last year.

Brokerages expect volumes to have declined around 11–12% YoY to 1.37 million units, impacted by production challenges in April and continued demand weakness in the entry-level 110cc motorcycle segment. While realizations are expected to rise 7–10% YoY—driven by a richer product mix, price hikes, and higher contribution from spare parts and exports—it is unlikely to offset the volume hit.

Kotak Institutional Equities expects revenue to drop 2% YoY, aided by a 7% increase in average selling price (ASP). It sees EBITDA margin contracting 30 bps YoY to 14.1%, with the bottom line falling accordingly.

Motilal Oswal forecasts a steeper 60 bps margin decline to 13.8%, citing a higher EV mix and weak ICE (internal combustion engine) sales. It expects PAT to fall about 7% YoY.

Nuvama echoes the volume-led revenue decline and adds that product launch expenses and lower scale will also weigh on operating margins. It notes that demand commentary will be key.Phillip Capital sees a 1% sequential decline in volume, hurt by a 36% QoQ drop in exports. While ASP is expected to increase marginally QoQ to Rs 73,071, commodity costs and rising EV contribution are expected to squeeze the EBITDA margin by 26 bps to 14%. PAT may see a marginal 2% QoQ growth, it notes.YES Securities estimates a 2% YoY revenue decline to ~Rs 9,940 crore, with margins falling 40 bps YoY to 14%. Adjusted PAT is seen at Rs 1,070 crore, down 4.7% YoY.

Hero is expected to report its Q1FY26 earnings later this week. All eyes will be on the management’s demand outlook—particularly in the rural and entry-level segments—as well as any updates on its EV roadmap.

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