Bitcoin’s precarious position as derivative shorts dominate market
Bitcoin derivative traders are increasingly positioning for further downside rather than a clean bounce as the leading cryptocurrency continues to trade in a tight range below $70,000.
According to CryptoSlate’s data, BTC price bottomed at $65,092 during the last 24 hours but has since recovered to $66,947 as of press time. This continues a weeklong tight trading that has failed to yield any momentum for the bellwether crypto.
That fragility is showing up most clearly in derivatives, where traders are increasingly leaning into short positions designed to profit from further weakness rather than a clean rebound.
This setup creates a familiar tension in crypto markets. Crowded shorts can become fuel for sudden upside, but a market shaped by recent liquidation trauma and shaky spot demand can also stay pinned in defensive mode for longer than contrarian traders expect
Funding shows a crowded downside trade
Santiment’s funding-rate metric, which aggregates major exchanges, has dropped into negative territory, indicating that shorts are paying longs to keep their positions open.
The crypto analytics firm described the drop as the most extreme wave of short positioning since August 2024, a period that coincided with a major bottom and a sharp multi-month recovery.
Funding rates exist because perpetual futures do not expire. Exchanges use periodic funding payments to keep perpetual prices aligned with spot prices.
When funding is positive, leveraged longs pay shorts. When it is negative, shorts pay longs. Deeply negative funding usually signals a one-sided trade; the crowd is paying up to stay short, often with leverage.
That creates squeeze risk even in an otherwise weak tape. If spot prices lift, even modestly, losses on leveraged shorts can force buybacks. Those buybacks can push prices higher, thereby triggering additional forced covering.
However, the negative funding is not a guarantee of a rally. It is a measure of how positioning is leaning, not a measure of how much spot demand is waiting on the sidelines.
In early 2026, several signals still read as defensive, which helps explain why bearish funding can persist.
October’s “10/10” crash still shapes risk appetite
The reason the short trade has traction is rooted in the trauma of October 2025’s historic deleveraging, an event traders shorthand as “10/10.”
CryptoSlate previously reported that more than $19 billion in crypto leverage was liquidated in roughly 24 hours on that day.
The episode was triggered by a macro shock (trade-war tariff headlines) that hit already-crowded positioning and then collided with vanishing order-book depth.
That context matters because it helps explain why extreme negative funding can persist longer than contrarians expect.
After repeated liquidation cascades, many traders treat rallies as opportunities to hedge, reduce exposure, or press shorts into resistance.
In that environment, bearish positioning can become a default posture, rather than a tactical trade that quickly flips.
Glassnode’s latest weekly framing captures the push-and-pull. The firm described Bitcoin as being absorbed within a $60,000 to $72,000 “demand corridor,” a range in which buyers have repeatedly stepped in.
However, it also flagged overhead supply likely to cap relief rallies, pointing to large supply clusters in unrealized loss around $82,000 to $97,000 and $100,000 to $117,000.
Together, those levels sketch a map for traders: there is room for a squeeze inside the corridor, but there are also clear zones where previous buyers may look to sell into strength.
Options pricing shows fear is being paid for
Derivatives markets beyond funding are reinforcing caution.
Deribit’s Weekly market report showed that BTC funding fell to its most negative level since April 2024 and that short-dated futures traded at strong discounts to spot, a pattern consistent with bearish demand for leverage.
The same report said downside hedging demand surged, with 7-day BTC volatility exceeding 100%.
Moreover, BTC Options pricing showed fear being priced for, not just discussed.
The report said volatility smiles priced their largest premium for puts since November 2022, indicating that traders were willing to pay a premium for crash protection even after a bounce.
When puts become that expensive, it usually reflects two things at once: anxiety about sharp downside moves, and skepticism that dips will be orderly.
Spot ETF flows offer a second, less technical window into sentiment, and they look mixed rather than convincingly supportive.
The SoSo Value daily spot Bitcoin ETF table showed outflows returning on key sessions this week, including net outflows of about $276.3 million on Feb. 11 and roughly $410.2 million on Feb. 12, with multiple funds reporting negative returns.
Those numbers matter because the ETF wrapper has become a central transmission mechanism between traditional portfolios and Bitcoin exposure. When it bleeds, it can weaken the spot bid, even if offshore markets are trading actively.
Essentially, the message is clear that BTC’s selling pressure is not easing, and a stable bid for the top crypto has not reasserted itself.
In that gap, bearish derivatives positioning can remain dominant, and short squeezes can occur without turning into sustained uptrends.
Three paths from here: squeeze, grind, or breakdown
In light of the above, BTC’s next move may hinge less on any single funding print and more on whether the market shifts from liquidation-driven repositioning into stabilization.
Against that backdrop, traders are framing the next phase in three broad scenarios.
The first is a squeeze rally that runs into overhead resistance.
In this scenario, positioning is too one-sided, and deeply negative funding becomes fuel. If spot demand improves, Bitcoin could retest the upper end of the $60,000-$72,000 corridor and approach $79,200, the True Market Mean identified by Glassnode.
After that, the key test would come above that, where Glassnode’s overhead supply clusters fall within the $82,000 to $97,000 range. The story in that case is not a clean return to a new bull market; it is a reflexive rally into a region packed with potential sellers.
The second is a range grind that is consistent with the view that risk sentiment has not fully recovered.
In this situation, the funding rate remains volatile but drifts toward neutrality as open interest and leverage remain subdued following repeated washouts.
In that world, short crowding can still spark bursts higher, but inconsistent spot flows and persistent hedging demand keep rallies from turning into trends.
The third is a structural breakdown from BTC’s current levels.
If the $60,000 to $72,000 corridor fails decisively, valuation gravity shifts toward the roughly $55,000 realized price anchor flagged by Glassnode, especially if macro risk-off flares again while options continue to price elevated downside.
Meanwhile, macro remains the lid on all three paths. With the Federal Reserve holding rates at 3.5% to 3.75% and explicitly flagging elevated uncertainty, crypto’s sensitivity to broader risk conditions remains high.
That is part of why this has become a high-convexity regime where crowded shorts can ignite sudden upside volatility, while defensive hedging and fragile liquidity can still pull prices lower in bursts.
For now, the dominant theme is straightforward: traders are increasingly positioned to profit from downside movements, and the market is volatile enough that it can punish them or reward them with speed.
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