Wednesday, October 15, 2025
HomeStock MarketF&O Talk| Nifty breaks 6-week losing streak, reclaims 24,600 but struggles for...

F&O Talk| Nifty breaks 6-week losing streak, reclaims 24,600 but struggles for momentum: Sudeep Shah



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Indian equities snapped a six-week losing streak and ended nearly a percent higher in the holiday-shortened week. The start was upbeat, though momentum moderated in subsequent sessions amid mixed signals. Ultimately, benchmark indices advanced, with the Nifty closing at 24,631.30 and the Sensex at 80,597.66.

The recovery was broad-based, led by healthcare, auto, and IT counters on the back of bargain hunting and strong domestic demand expectations. Consumer discretionary stocks also gained nearly 2%, reflecting optimism around consumption. In contrast, FMCG and oil & gas ended flat to marginally lower, as investors booked profits in defensives and reacted to subdued fuel price trends.

In this regard, analyst Sudeep Shah, Vice President and Head of Technical & Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, interacted with ET Markets regarding the outlook for the Nifty and Bank Nifty, as well as an index strategy for the upcoming week. The following are the edited excerpts from his chat:

After 6 consecutive weeks, Nifty finally ended this week in green. What is expected ahead?

This Independence Week, the benchmark index Nifty finally broke free from its six-week losing streak, registering a healthy 1.10% gain and reclaiming the 24,600 mark. Much like the nation’s hard-fought freedom, this rebound has brought relief after a prolonged phase of market weakness. Yet, the last two trading sessions have seen the index moving in a narrow range, forming small-bodied candles — a reminder that lasting independence from bearish pressure still needs stronger ground.

At present, Nifty remains below its 20-day and 50-day EMA, with both averages drifting lower — reflecting an ongoing struggle in the medium-term trend. On the momentum front, the daily RSI is moving sideways, showing a lack of clear directional conviction, while the MACD histogram stays below its zero and signal lines, keeping the overall sentiment cautious
Internally, the index’s “troops” aren’t all marching in unison — 28 out of the 50 Nifty constituents are still trading below their 50-day EMA, suggesting this recovery lacks broad-based participation.
For the rally to achieve true strength — much like the unity that drove India’s freedom movement — Nifty will need to conquer the 24,750–24,800 resistance zone. A sustained move above 24,800 could open the path to 25,100. On the flip side, 24,470–24,450 remains the crucial support base. A decisive breach below 24,450 could see the index retreat to 24,250 and potentially to 24,100.
Until broader participation joins the march, this rally remains a work in progress — a movement still striving for complete market freedom.

Let’s talk about Bank Nifty. It has largely been under consolidation in a broad range since April. First of all, does the index look tradable at all?

During the past week, the banking benchmark index Bank Nifty moved within a tight band of just 654 points — its narrowest weekly range since the last week of August 2024. The index lagged behind the frontline indices, managing only a modest gain of 0.61%. On the weekly chart, it formed a small-bodied bullish candle with a minor upper shadow, indicating a lack of strong directional momentum.

At present, the index has been hovering around its 100-day EMA for the past six trading sessions, reflecting an indecisive phase. It continues to trade below its 20 and 50-day EMAs, keeping the trend structure weak. Meanwhile, the daily RSI remains stuck in a sideways zone, underscoring the absence of a clear breakout signal.

Going forward, the 55,700–55,800 zone is expected to act as a key resistance for the index, while the 54,900–54,800 zone will serve as crucial support. A sustained move beyond either of these levels could trigger a directional move.

Do you recommend either day trading or positional trading in Bank Nifty? What are the key levels you are watching?

Positionally, the 55,700–55,800 zone is expected to act as a key resistance for the Bank Nifty, while the 54900–54800 zone will serve as crucial support. A sustained move beyond either of these levels could trigger a directional move.

What is the OI data suggesting for Nifty before the market opens on Monday? How can a potential trade setup look?

The options data and PCR suggest a phase of short-term consolidation in the market. The PCR fluctuating between 0.78 and 1.08 indicates a balanced sentiment, with no signs of extreme bullish or bearish positioning. Strong put writing at 24,600 and 24,500 strike prices highlights immediate support zones, while call writing at 24,700 and 24,800 points to resistance levels in the near term. A breakdown below 24,450 could drag the index toward 24,300–24,250, whereas a sustained breakout above 24,800 may open the path toward 25,000–25,050. Until a decisive move occurs, the index is likely to consolidate within the 24,450–24,750 range. Additionally, stable implied volatility around 10 reflects a lack of panic, reinforcing the view of a steady, range-bound market in the short term.

Post Q1 earnings, Muthoot Finance and Apollo Hospitals have shown an amazing performance on charts. Do you recommend any positions here?

Yes, both Muthoot Finance and Apollo Hospitals have delivered strong weekly breakouts, supported by robust volume, which adds conviction to the move. With both stocks trading near or at all-time highs, the technical setup remains bullish — all key moving averages are trending upward, and momentum indicators like RSI and MACD are showing strength

Hence, we believe the medium-term outlook remains positive, and the stocks are likely to continue their outperformance. We recommend accumulating on dips rather than chasing the rally to manage risk and optimise entry levels.

Which sectors are you focusing on?

From a technical perspective, sectors such as Nifty Auto, Nifty PSU Bank, Nifty Healthcare, Nifty Pharma, and Nifty India Tourism are likely to maintain their relative outperformance

While Nifty IT, Oil & Gas, FMCG, Media, and Realty may continue to underperform in the near term.

Also read: From Paytm to Eternal: 42 stocks where India’s top performing PMS fund managers are betting on

Any stocks that are technically well-placed?

Technically, Chalet Hotel, HDFC Life, Uno Minda, and Max Financial are looking good.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)



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