Hyperliquid predicted 80% of an oil market move before traditional exchanges even opened, says TD Securities
Perpetual futures are beginning to break out of their origins and emerge as a broader asset class beyond crypto, according to a new report from TD Securities.
The bank said recent regulatory developments in the U.S. and growing institutional demand are helping transform perpetual futures, commonly known as “perps,” from a niche crypto instrument into a market structure that could eventually span commodities, equities and private-market investing.
“PERPs are no longer just a crypto product. They are becoming a broader market-structure product,” TD Securities wrote.
Perpetual futures differ from traditional futures because they do not expire. Instead, they rely on funding-rate mechanisms that keep prices aligned with underlying markets. The contracts have become the dominant trading vehicle in crypto, accounting for roughly 80% of global digital asset trading volumes, according to TD.
Momentum accelerated last month when the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) allowed bitcoin perpetual futures to trade on prediction market platform Kalshi. Around the same time, Coinbase (COIN) announced plans to launch U.S. equity-index perpetual futures and moved closer to connecting American customers with offshore perpetual futures markets.
The report argues that institutional demand is expanding beyond cryptocurrencies. Hyperliquid (HYPE), the largest decentralized perpetual futures platform, now offers contracts linked to commodities and private companies. The exchange has become a venue for trading pre-IPO contracts tied to firms such as Cerebras and SpaceX, allowing traders to speculate on valuations before public listings.
Hyperliquid’s growth is also beginning to test the traditional role of exchanges such as CME Group in price discovery.
TD pointed to trading activity during the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict earlier this year, when commodity markets were closed for the weekend but Hyperliquid remained open. According to the report, notional volume in oil-linked perpetual futures on the platform grew from roughly $25 million to more than $550 million by the third weekend of trading. Hyperliquid also priced in about 80% of the subsequent move in West Texas Intermediate crude before CME’s market reopened.
“The significance was not just the volume, but price discovery happening before traditional commodity markets reopened,” TD wrote.
The trend extends beyond commodities. TD said Hyperliquid’s pre-IPO perpetual futures tied to companies such as Cerebras and SpaceX have become an early test of whether blockchain-based markets can help establish valuations before stocks begin trading publicly.
That growth has drawn scrutiny from incumbent exchanges. TD noted that ICE and CME have pushed regulators to examine Hyperliquid’s oil-linked products while simultaneously exploring similar offerings themselves, highlighting a growing battle between traditional and crypto-native market infrastructure.
TD expects commodities to be the next major growth area for perpetual futures, with oil, gold and copper among the most likely candidates. As regulators move toward creating a formal U.S. framework for the products, the bank said the larger question is whether perpetual futures can retain their appeal once they are brought under tighter oversight.
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