Crypto Market Recovery or Crash as $7.5B Bitcoin, ETH, XRP Options to Expire Today?

Crypto market crash stalled and stocks gained higher after the US-Iran ceasefire was extended to another 60 days, with traders eyeing recovery. Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and XRP are rising amid buy-the-dip action, but $7.5 billion in monthly crypto options are expiring today.

Market uncertainty increased amid mixed sentiment, with US PCE inflation coming in hot at 3.8% in line with estimates by JPMorgan, UBS, and Wall Street giants. Bullish technical patterns are forming Bitcoin and Ethereum charts. Meanwhile, XRP price jumped above $1.30 amid massive buying.

Long and short liquidations remain balanced, which means traders will determine short-term market direction. Will the crypto market recover or crash further amid mixed sentiment?

$6.2B in Bitcoin Options Expiry, Crypto Market Recovery or Crash Ahead?

After the PCE data confirmed that inflation increased in the United States, crypto traders are watching today’s monthly crypto options expiry.

Deribit data shows more than 84K Bitcoin options contracts with a notional value of $6.2 billion are to expire on May 29. The put/call ratio is 0.84 and 24-hour call volume is also higher than put volume, signaling bullish sentiment.

Moreover, the max pain price is at $75000, above the current Bitcoin price of $73662. It indicates bias for upside momentum among options traders. Traders are expecting a crypto market recovery, targeting a jump in the Bitcoin price to $73,500 and $74,500.

Also, implied volatility remains compressed even after the cryptocurrency market crash, signaling the market isn’t pricing in panic yet. Overall, the crypto market is still betting on support and potential recovery, as per an options expert.

In addition, technical charts now show upside momentum. Bitcoin formed a hammer candle on the daily chart, signaling a bullish reversal. This shows Bitcoin price has likely reached a bottom and may rise.

Ethereum Crypto Options Show Recovery-Crash Dilemma

643K Ethereum options with a notional value of $1.29 million to expire today, with a put/call ratio of 0.74. However, put volume has increased significantly in the past 24 hours, with an extremely bearish put/call ratio of 3.5.

The max pain price is at $2200, above the current market price of $2016. Deribit data shows there is 57% probabilty of Ethereum expiring above $2000 strike price.

Traders are targeting $1800 and $1900 strike prices for the June 26 options expiry. This indicates Ethereum price will continue to remain under pressure after the options expiry.

10x Research said “The Ethereum options market is seeing unusually large put buying activity, with the $1,800 and $1,900 strikes attracting flows running approximately five times above normal levels.”

10x Research added that Ethereum is cheap, but that does not make it a buying opportunity. Fundamentals will ultimately determine price, deeper crypto market crash can turn investors bearish.

However, Ethereum has formed a hammer candle and dragon doji on the daily chart, similar to Bitcoin. The latest rebound in Ethereum price above $2000 explains is driven by investors tracking technical charts.

XRP Rises Ahead of Options Expiry

XRP options worth almost $27 million are expiring today, with a put/call ratio of 0.90. However, the put/call ratio has increased to 1.4 in the past 24 hours.

Meanwhile, the max pain price is at $1.40, above the current price of $1.31. Whale accumulation, institutional rotation to XRP, and derivatives buying have caused XRP price recovery, but a broader crypto market recovery will only trigger a rebound to $1.40.

In addition, options trades are opening calls for $1.6 strike price for the June 26 monthly options expiry and $3.4 strike price in September. XRP price has jumped more than 3% over the past 24 hours.