Polymarket Odds for April Peace Deal Surge to 33%

Negotiations associated with the current US-Iran war were still underway late into Saturday. Discussions in Islamabad were reported to “last well into the night” and possibly into Sunday.

US-Iran War Peace Deal Odds Soar On Polymarket

Polymarket prediction market data shows the sentiment is turning; traders are considering the chances of a breakthrough. Contracts pegged on a deadline of April 30 currently suggest a 33% chance of a lasting peace agreement amid the US-Iran ceasefire.

Earlier timelines show lower confidence, with April 22 showing 20% odds. In the meantime, odds rose to around 45% for a peace deal by May 31. The wagers suggest that markets expect the US-Iran war negotiations to take more time.

Polymarket data indicates that a resolution has to indicate a permanent cessation of hostilities. The extension or temporary ceasefires are not considered a permanent result according to its rules.

It marks the first direct engagement between Washington and Tehran since 1979, which comes after weeks of the US-Iran war. The two parties held the meeting in Pakistan after having held separate talks with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif who is mediating the process. This development pushed Bitcoin price up, reaching beyond the $73,000 level.

The U.S. delegation includes Vice President JD Vance, as well as envoy Steve Witkoff and advisor Jared Kushner. Whilst, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Sayed Abbas Araghchi led Iran’s delegation.

Major Disagreements Over Hormuz Persist

According to the Tasnim News Agency of Iran, both parties were sending messages to each other to “reach a common framework for the negotiations.” Meanwhile, the progress has been slowed by what it described as Washington’s “usual excessive demands.” One of the issues, which are a major topic in the context of the US-Iran war, is the Strait of Hormuz.

Individually, the U.S. Central Command announced that naval troops have started to clear underwater mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Now, they are aiming to resume commercial shipping traffic.

Iranian authorities indicated that they were willing to negotiate with some conditions. Ghalibaf added that Tehran is ready in case Washington makes a “genuine agreement” and considers the rights of Iran. On the U.S. side, Donald Trump has stressed that the priority is to ensure that Iran does not have access to nuclear weapons, claiming that it is 99% of it.