Commodity Radar: Gold jumps Rs 7,600 per 10 gm on Iran-Israel war, weak rupee. What’s the weekly trade setup?
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The MCX April gold futures today hit a high of Rs 1,69,679 compared to the Friday close of Rs 1,68,006.
Firm cues from international bullion markets buoyed sentiment on the MCX, with gold opening gap-up and extending gains through the session. Domestic prices received a twin boost from the rupee’s weakness, as the currency slid 0.3% to 91.23 — its lowest level in a month and the weakest since early February.
The yellow metal prices on the COMEX were trading around $5,393.30, up $145.40 an ounce or $2.77%.
The war intensified after Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed on Saturday by US-led strikes. Any truce remains out of sight as Iran has ruled out any possibility of talks with the US.
“Heightened geopolitical risk amid the US–Israel war has driven sharp safe-haven flows into bullion, lifting the MCX gold towards the Rs 1.68–Rs 1.69 lakh zone and reflecting global risk-off sentiment,” said Jateen Trivedi, Vice President & Research Analyst at LKP Securities. The safe haven interest in the yellow metal is driving the risk premium as commodities remain volatile in the wake of the war, Trivedi said.
Traders can expect sharp moves amid rupee volatility. Any weakness in INR against the US dollar will support bullion.”Domestic gold prices (MCX) are reacting more sharply than international prices (COMEX) due to ongoing INR volatility, which amplifies moves during risk-off scenarios. A weaker rupee continues to cushion downside and support domestic bullion levels,” the LKP analyst said.
5 tech indicators to watch out for:
Key support & resistance
Bullion rallied sharply over the past session, indicating strong short-term demand. The current consolidation above recent highs reflects accumulation rather than distribution.
Immediate support lies at Rs 1,66,500 which is also the short-term demand zone based on recent pullbacks while major support is seen at Rs 1,64,000. The near-term resistance is seen at Rs 1,69,500–Rs 1,70,000 with next hurdle placed above Rs 1,71,000.
Trend remains bullish as long as the Rs 1,64,000 support holds on closing basis, Trivedi said.
2) Momentum indicator
RSI (14) stands near 82–83, indicating strong bullish momentum. While this suggests price is in an overbought zone, in strong trends such high RSI levels often persist during continuation phases rather than signal immediate reversal.
3) Bollinger bands
Price is trading near the upper band, which indicates strong upside momentum and volatility expansion. The expansion and directional slope of the bands suggest that any retracement is likely to remain shallow and within trend context rather than signalling a trend reversal.
4) Moving averages
EMA 8 (Red) is sharply upward and acting as dynamic support on dips while EMA 21 (yellow) is providing underlying trend support and is positioned well below current prices. Price holding above both EMAs confirms continuation bias and supports buy-on-dip strategy.
5) MACD
MACD remains in positive territory with histogram bars above zero, indicating bullish momentum. Though not shown on the chart, the weekly structure suggests momentum is building rather than rolling over.
Gold trading strategy
Bullish momentum remains intact with the trend aligned higher, this analyst said, recommending a buy on dips strategy towards the lower support band around Rs 1,66–Rs 1,67k. These levels should attract fresh buying as long as Rs 1.64 lakh support remains unbroken on a weekly close, he opined.
Buy Zone: Rs 1,66,500 – Rs 1,67,000
Stop Loss: Below Rs 1,64,000 on a closing basis.
Targets: Rs 1,69,500/Rs 1,71,000+
(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)
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