cmg stock: Chipotle stock: Chipotle Stock slides as CMG warns of flat sales in 2026 after Q4 traffic decline

Chipotle’s latest earnings update gave investors little comfort about the year ahead. While the company narrowly beat Wall Street’s profit and revenue estimates, sales trends told a tougher story. A same-store sales decline and a cautious outlook for 2026 sent Chipotle stock sharply lower. The results highlight ongoing pressure on CMG’s core customer as dining habits continue to shift.

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Why Did Chipotle Stock Fall After Earnings?

Chipotle stock sank after the company warned investors not to expect sales growth in 2026. Shares dropped as much as 11% in extended trading after management said it was taking a conservative approach due to unpredictable consumer behavior. Analysts had expected modest growth, making the flat outlook a key concern, as per a report by Yahoo Finance and CNBC.

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How Did Same-Store Sales Perform in Q4?

In the fourth quarter, Chipotle reported a 2.5% decline in same-store sales, slightly better than Wall Street’s expected 2.9% drop. Higher menu prices helped offset weaker transactions, but traffic fell for the fourth consecutive quarter.
For the full year, same-store sales declined 1.7%, marking Chipotle’s first annual drop since 2016.
CEO Scott Boatwright pointed to a “dynamic consumer backdrop,” noting that dining patterns have shifted repeatedly over the past year, forcing the company to revise expectations multiple times, as per a report by Yahoo Finance and CNBC.

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What Did Chipotle Report vs. Expectations?

Despite the sales pressure, Chipotle’s financial results came in just ahead of estimates. The company reported adjusted earnings per share of 25 cents, topping expectations of 24 cents. Revenue rose nearly 5% to $2.98 billion, slightly above forecasts of $2.96 billion. Net income for the quarter totaled $330.9 million, essentially flat compared with the prior year as per a report by Yahoo Finance and CNBC.

What Is Chipotle’s Outlook for 2026?

Chipotle told investors it expects flat same-store sales growth in 2026, compared with analyst expectations for a 1.8% increase. Boatwright said the guidance reflects caution, adding that consumer trends “have been really tough to predict.”
The forecast assumes only a modest impact from initiatives such as limited-time menu offerings.

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Who Is Chipotle’s Core Customer Right Now?

Management said about 60% of customers earn more than $100,000 a year, describing the group as the brand’s “North Star” focused on clean ingredients and high-protein meals. Boatwright also noted that younger diners, particularly those aged 25 to 35, continue to face economic headwinds, though new rewards and menu strategies helped draw some back.

FAQs

Why is CMG stock down today?
Investors reacted negatively to Chipotle’s forecast for flat sales growth in 2026.

Did Chipotle beat earnings estimates?
Yes, Chipotle slightly exceeded expectations on both earnings and revenue.