Commodity Radar: Gold may rise by another Rs 2,400/10 gram this week. Rupee, risk-off sentiments remain triggers: LKP Securities

Domestic gold prices jumped Rs 1,300 per 10 grams or 1% on Monday, taking cues from the international prices amid risk-off sentiments in equities and Bitcoin. The sharp rise in MCX gold prices vis-a-vis its overseas peers was due to rupee weakness against the US dollar.

The February gold futures were trading at Rs 1,30,800 per 10 gram around 2 pm compared to gold’s 0.5% or $20 per troy ounce gains on the COMEX at $4,274.70.

Gold strengthened as the dollar index (DXY) slipped, declining 0.83% over the past five sessions and currently hovering around 99.36 against a basket of six major currencies.

The Indian Rupee extended its November decline of 0.8% to the first day of December, slipping further to 89.73/$—surpassing its previous record low of 89.49/$ registered just two weeks earlier.

Gold has gained from the rupee’s weakness and has rallied over 60% so far this year.

Commenting on the current trends, Jateen Trivedi, Vice President, Research Analyst at LKP Securities, said that gold remains well-supported fundamentally as US–China tariff developments showed mild positive cues, reducing global risk but still keeping safe-haven demand intact.

Gold prices will take cues from the developments around the Federal Reserve’s December monetary policy, which begins next week (December 9).

Trivedi said that broader markets expect the Fed to remain cautious until data shows clearer disinflation, indirectly supporting gold on dips.

As for the rupee, the persistent weakness continues to add a bullish premium to MCX gold, he said, adding that any fresh depreciation will magnify upside moves even if global gold stays sideways.

Technical triggers to watch out for:

1) Key support & resistance

Gold continues its upward momentum, closing near Rs 1,30,299, marking a steady bullish structure over the last two weeks. Price action shows strong buying interest above Rs 1,28,700, with a sequence of higher highs and higher lows forming.

— Immediate support at Rs 1,29,000, which is a key buying zone

— Major support at Rs 1,28,000, and any breakdown will only be below this level

— Immediate resistance is at Rs 1,32,000 while major resistance zone lies at Rs 1,33,200–Rs 1,34,200

A sustained move above Rs 1,32,000 opens the path toward Rs 1,33,800–Rs 1,34,200.

2) Technicals

The RSI is trending higher at 67, reflecting strengthening bullish momentum but still below overbought levels. Momentum supports continuation of the current rally, especially if prices hold above the 8 EMA. Price is trading near the upper Bollinger band, indicating upside pressure and trend continuation. No signs of reversal yet; volatility expansion supports further bullish movement unless price closes below the mid-band (Rs 1,28,700).

— EMA 8: Rs 1,29,650

— EMA 21: Rs 1,28,745

Price firmly trades above both EMAs, confirming a short-term and medium-term bullish structure.

Pullbacks toward these averages should attract buyers.

MACD remains in positive territory with widening histogram bars, signalling strengthening bullish momentum. No bearish divergence is noticeable yet.

Also read: Rupee at lifetime low despite GDP boost. Is a steeper decline on the cards?

Gold trading strategy: Buy on dips

— Buy Zone: Rs 1,29,000

— Stop Loss below Rs 1,28,000 on the closing Basis):

Targets:

– Rs 1,32,000/Rs 1,33,000–Rs 1,33,200

Gold remains in a stable uptrend technically and fundamentally, with dips likely to find strong support

buying flows throughout the week.

(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)